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May 9th

Market Wrap - 9th May

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
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Markets have continued their weaker tone today as uncertainty in Europe and fears about the solvency of Spanish banks keeps investors on the back foot. Talk that the EU was considering withholding a €5.2bn bailout payment to Greece, due tomorrow, hasn't helped investor's frayed nerves. Talk that Bankia, Spain's fourth largest bank could be bailed out after the market close, hasn't stopped the IBEX35 closing in on its lowest levels since 2009.

Ex-dividend stocks have also proved to be a drag shaving 15 points off the index but the overall sentiment remains one of concern about political deadlock in Greece and uncertainty over the future of Greece within Europe.

There have been some bright spots but with such a negative tone it's been hard for markets to focus on anything positive. The UK's third biggest supermarket Sainsbury (SBRY LN) was an early gainer after reporting an increase in operating profits of 7%, above analysts' expectations. The company also announced an increase in its dividend. The company also increased its market share to 16.6%, the highest in a decade, despite a tough operating environment. Terrestrial broadcaster ITV (ITV LN) is also doing well after posting a positive Q1 trading update with sales up 13%, driven by a better performance from ITV studios.

On the downside the usual suspects of basic resource and industrial stocks have been hit the hardest with Weir Group (WEIR LN) sliding sharply on the back of a broker downgrade and some disappointment from its Q1 trading update which saw a 26% drop in sales at its oil and gas division. Business software company Sage Group (SGE LN) is also another heavy loser despite reporting a 3% rise in profits, as concerns about recessionary headwinds in the UK and France as well as the rest of Europe weighs on the outlook.

U.S. markets opened lower this morning as concerns about Europe continued to preoccupy investors. Stocks in focus include Disney after the company posted results after the closing bell last night that beat expectations of $0.55c a share coming in at $0.58c a share on revenue of $9.63bn. News Corp is expected to report its latest Q3 earnings today with expectations of $0.31c a share, up from $0.26c a year ago.

After the bell Cisco Systems is expected to announce Q3 earnings of $0.47c a share, up from $0.42c a year ago.

The Japanese Yen has once again pushed higher along with the U.S. dollar as investors flee into the twin safe haven plays. This once again gives the Bank of Japan a major problem as the yen appreciates and as a result stifles Japanese exporters.

Once again the Australian and New Zealand dollar have borne the brunt of the selling, along with the Canadian dollar as metal and oil prices drop sharply on fears of a slowdown in global demand.

Rising Spanish bond yields, pushing above the 6% level on the 10 year have reinforced the risk off mentality, pushing the Euro to its lowest levels since the end of January.

The Pound has also slid as disappointing retail sales numbers from the British Retail Consortium for April showed an annual decline of 3.3%, wiping out the rise of 1.3% in March. This decline does have to be set into the context of the timing of last year's Royal Wedding and a late Easter.

There is also a slim chance that the Bank of England may well announce further measures to stimulate the UK economy by more QE at its latest rate meeting tomorrow.

Copper prices have continued their slide from yesterday, closing on levels seen a month ago when it was trading below $3.60.

Crude oil has also continued its recent declines with U.S. prices hitting their lowest levels this year, declining for six days in a row, after crude stockpiles hit their highest levels since 1990. Weekly inventory data also surged putting additional downward pressure on prices as U.S. prices pushed below the 200 day MA joining Brent prices which have been trading below their long term average for the third day in a row.

Gold prices have also slid below the $1,600 level for the first time since early January as investors put cash back into the surging U.S. dollar

May 3rd

Market Wrap - 3rd May

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
Trade CFDs with Traders Own Markets. Free Equity Unit with every trade

European markets had initially been trading positively for most of the day with investors looking past concerns about sovereign finances after Spain and France managed to sell bonds, albeit at higher yields. In the afternoon session sentiment started to sour a little after U.S. April service sector activity came in below expectations, posting its biggest drop in 12 months.

Nothing of consequence came of this afternoon’s ECB rate meeting and press conference, despite speculation that the ECB might give some clues as to further easing of monetary policy. Some of the focus today has also been on company announcements with the main gainers in the UK being from the healthcare and telecoms sector. Best performer has been medical devices firm Smith and Nephew (SN. LN) after the company reported better than expected profits in the first quarter of 2012.

On the downside, both Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Randgold Resources (RRS LN) have slid back with Randgold getting sold, despite posting a 126% rise in annual profits. Investors chose to focus instead on the drop in quarterly revenues caused by the coup in Mali and issues at its Ivory Coast mining operation. Antofagasta also cited production problems for its disappointing trading update.

U.S. markets opened more or less on the flat line, despite weekly jobless claims coming in much better than expected at 365k, down from a revised 392k the previous week. Of greater concern was the disappointing non-manufacturing ISM number for April which came in below expectations of 55.3, at 53.5, down from 56 in March.

Stocks in focus include Target which reported same store sales below estimates, rising 1.1% below the consensus of 2.8%. Visa is also in focus after reporting better than expected results after the bell, coming in at $1.60c a share on improved revenue of $2.58bn as U.S. consumers used their credit cards a little more. GM also boasted an increase in Q1 earnings of $0.93c a share, well above expectations of $0.85c a share.

The worst performing currency today has been the New Zealand dollar after the jobless rate jumped sharply in the first quarter to 6.7%, from 6.3%, raising expectations that the RBNZ could ease monetary policy in the coming weeks. The Australian dollar wasn’t too far behind as markets fret about a slowdown in China after services PMI came in slightly weaker than expected.

The Pound has weakened a little after services PMI for April weakened more than expected to 53.3, from 55.3 in March. Despite this the figure remains in expansion territory in marked contrast to the equivalent European measures.

The Euro was initially weaker but post the ECB press conference, when it became apparent that the ECB wasn’t about to loosen the monetary policy brakes any further, it pulled back higher.

Oil prices turned sharply lower in the afternoon session after disappointing U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM data for April came in short of expectations, while the lack of any policy change from the ECB combined with an “uncertain outlook” saw traders push markets lower. With inventories at relatively high levels it would seem that traders appear ready to test the downside.

Copper prices continued their losses from yesterday as uncertainty about the economic outlook in Europe combined with a reluctance by the ECB to loosen monetary policy saw the red metal fall. Gold and silver prices also felt the backdraft of the no change in policy, dropping sharply, with silver looking to drop below the psychologically important $30 mark
Mar 22nd

Market Wrap - 22nd March

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
The weaker tone of the last two days has gained momentum today as European markets look set to post their worst losing sequence since the beginning of January. Disappointing manufacturing data from China, Germany and France suggests that the recent recovery in economic activity - especially in the Northern core of Europe - could well be starting to run out of steam.

Mining stocks have borne the brunt with Randgold Resources (RRS LN) hit hard after a military coup in Mali raised concerns that production at their mining facilities in the country could well be disrupted.

Mexican silver miner Fresnillo (FRES LN) also slid back sharply along with mining heavyweights Xstrata (XTA LN), Vedanta (VED LN) and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) after Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI posted a much sharper contraction than forecast, raising concerns that the Chinese economy was slowing down sharply.

UK retail sales numbers also dropped sharply knocking retail stocks back despite clothing retailer Next (NXT LN) reporting a rise in profits for 2011, with the company's rather gloomy outlook seeming to get more attention from investors than the headline numbers. On the plus side, United Utilities (UU. LN) bucked the negative trend after saying it was on track to deliver a good financial performance for the year. B&Q owner Kingfisher (KGF LN) also bucked the negative trend after reporting beat forecasts with a 20% rise in profits.

U.S. markets opened sharply lower replicating the softer tone from Europe. U.S. weekly jobless claims continued the positive theme from the U.S. labour market coming in at 348k below expectations of 351k, though last week's number was revised slightly higher to 353k. There is a quite a full reporting calendar with Nike and Accenture due to report after the market close with expectations that both companies will beat previous year's numbers. Nike is expected to report Q3 earnings of $1.17c a share while Accenture is expected to report Q2 earnings of $0.85c a share.

Courier company Fedex reported Q3 earnings of $1.55c a share, above expectations of $1.35c a share, but the shares slid back as the company reported concerns about future growth prospects.

Both the New Zealand and Australian dollar have dropped sharply on the back of the weaker tone from China and falling commodity prices, with the Kiwi falling the most after Q4 GDP came in well below expectations of 0.6% at 0.3%.

The Euro is also lower as a trifecta of concerns over disappointing economic data in Germany and France, deteriorating Portuguese finances and sharply rising Spanish bond yields contrive to reignite concerns about the sustainability of the fiscal situation in Europe.

The Pound has also dropped back after retail sales data in February dropped sharply in February, while January's figure was also revised sharply lower, suggesting that the recent consumer bounce back may well have ground to a halt.

The Japanese yen has been the best performer as U.S. 10 year bond yields drop sharply sending the U.S. dollar lower against the Japanese currency.

Copper prices have dropped sharply today on the back of this morning's disappointing Chinese data as well as a firmer U.S. dollar. With higher inventories in Chinese warehouses and concerns about future demand copper prices have hit one week lows.

Oil prices have also dropped sharply on the back of this morning's weaker than expected economic data, though in truth a report that some countries were considering a release of reserves from strategic stockpiles had already started to see it drift lower.

A firmer U.S. dollar has seen metals prices slide back today with gold prices hitting their lowest levels since January this year, though downside could well be limited by reports of central bank buying interest.

Silver prices have also slid to their lowest levels since January on the back of the disappointing data out of China and Europe, given that demand could well drop for industrial uses.
Mar 13th

Market Wrap - 13th March

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
The German ZEW survey for March trumped expectations and U.S. retail sales delivered a robust showing in February (rising at its fastest level in five months), which both contributed to major markets building on the positive bias of the past few days.

Markets will be looking to today's Fed meeting with no expectation that policymakers will hint at any easing back on current loose monetary policy. The Fed is likely to continue to keep up its current stance of scepticism with respect to the recent improvement in economic data, and thus keep the door ajar to the possibility of further easing.

Financials have led the way in today's move higher with insurers pushing up after results from Prudential (PRU LN) and Standard Life (STAN LN) beat expectations.

Banks aren't too far behind either with Lloyds (LLOY LN) pushing up on a broker reiteration at the same time as announcing job losses, along with Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS LN) with 1,700 jobs.

On the downside, Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO LN) is the worst performer in stark contrast to the rest of a buoyant mining sector despite announcing record revenues and profits, such is the fickle nature of markets these days.

G4S (GFS LN) has also had a disappointing day after announcing a £55m hit to profits after its failed bid for Denmark's ISS.

U.S. markets opened higher today on the back of a more buoyant Europe and a big improvement in U.S. retail sales with both the S&P500 and Nasdaq hitting multi year highs. Apple shares continue to hit record highs as investors continue to look past the problems in Europe and focus on the positives in the U.S. economy and the likelihood that even if economic data were to deteriorate the Fed would step in to hold up the markets.

The so called risk currencies have jumped higher today with the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar pushing higher on the back of firmer metals prices.

The Pound has also had a particularly good day after the weakness of recent days, after UK trade data for January came in ahead of expectations at -£7.5bn, managing to bounce strongly from the 1.5610 level.

The Japanese yen has continued on its bout of recent weakness hitting its lowest levels against the U.S. dollar for 10 months

The Euro has had a much weaker bias today as concerns about growth potential in the smaller European nations weigh on the upside, while Spain and the EU remain at loggerheads about the country's 2012 budget deficit.

Brent prices continue to put upwards pressure on prices in euro and sterling terms, while in U.S. dollar terms they also remain fairly well underpinned.  Oil prices on the U.S. measure have also had a good day on the back of the positive economic data out of the U.S.

Gold prices continue to trade sideways either side of the $1,700 level struggling for direction while copper prices have also found support from the much more positive risk bias in the markets today.
Mar 8th

Market Wrap - 8th March

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
European equity markets have once more had a buoyant tone today as optimism grows that the Greek debt swap will go through without too many problems. Meanwhile, rumours of a Chinese reserve requirements cut of 50 basis points helped give markets an additional push. Investors will be closely monitoring the latest Chinese CPI and industrial production figures due out early Friday morning for any clues as to the timing of this.

This rise in markets was tempered slightly by the ECB slightly adjusting its growth projections for the euro area downwards for 2012 and 2013.

The mining sector is the best performer on the back of the rumoured reserve requirements adjustment from China led higher by Vedanta Resources (VED LN). Luxury retailer Burberry (BRBY LN) is also higher on the back of the Chinese easing speculation due to its recent rapid growth in the region.

On the downside, the more defensive utilities sector has underperformed led by Centrica (CNA LN) and National Grid (NGG LN).

U.S. markets opened higher on the back of firmer and more optimistic European markets, while weekly jobless claims didn't do anything to scare the horses too much, even though they came in slightly hotter than expected. Weekly claims increased by 8k to come in at 362k, above expectations of 351k.

The U.S. dollar has once again suffered on the back of the more positive tone in equity markets, with the more high yielding currencies pushing higher. The outperformers have been the Scandinavian currencies while the New Zealand dollar has also pushed higher after last night's decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

The Japanese yen has continued its recent weaker tone after last night's current account data showed the deficit continued to widen.

The Euro has pushed higher against both the Pound and the U.S. dollar, but has struggled to rally above the 100 day MA at 1.3270 despite a better than expected industrial production number from Germany for January and a slightly higher than expected inflation forecast from the ECB.

Crude oil prices continued to push back towards their recent highs, particularly on the Brent side with prices against both the euro and the pound heading back towards the record highs seen last week. Speculation that Iranian sanctions are starting to bite has had an underpinning effect on prices.

Copper prices have also jumped sharply but slipped off their highs on the Chinese speculation and the slightly weaker U.S. dollar.

Gold prices briefly jumped above the $1,700 mark before finding resistance at the 144 day MA and sliding back. The yellow metal continues to rise in contrast to the falling U.S. dollar as investors look to buy cautiously back in after last week's sharp falls.
Mar 7th

Market Wrap - 7th March

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
European markets have stabilised after yesterday’s sharp falls, trading in a holding pattern ahead of the outcome of this week’s Greece debt swap, the results of which are due tomorrow evening.

For now, markets are treading water with upside limited due to concerns about the outcome of the debt swap. This is combined with concerns about faltering economic data, after German factory orders slid sharply in January by 2.7%, which was well below the expected 0.6% rise.

Biggest gainer has been Admiral (ADM LN) after the insurance company announced record annual pre-tax profits of nearly £300m, a 13% increase from 2010.

Other gainers have come from yesterday’s biggest fallers with Essar Energy (ESSR LN) and Evraz (EVR LN) bouncing back, while the technology sector has also bounced back with ARM Holdings (ARM LN) pulling back after a hefty fall yesterday as attention shifts to the US and the latest iPad release from Apple.

On the downside, British American Tobacco (BAT LN) was among the larger fallers after going ex-dividend, along with Standard Chartered (STAN LN).

U.S. markets opened higher this morning pulling back some ground after yesterday’s sharp losses after U.S. ADP employment data for February came in pretty much as expected at 216k, just above the expected 215k consensus and well above the January 170k. A lot of investor attention will be on Apple today as they announce the launch of their latest iPad at an event later on today.

Yesterday’s bigger fallers have led today’s rebound with Bank of America and Caterpillar both higher, while the more defensive stocks like Merck have slipped back.

The U.S. dollar has given back some of the ground made yesterday as equity markets bounce back after yesterday’s sharp falls.

The biggest gainers include the New Zealand dollar which is sharply higher after bouncing off its 200-day MA, ahead of tonight’s interest rate decision, which is expected to see the RBNZ leave interest rates unchanged at 2.5%.

The Norwegian krone has also bounced back as oil prices have rebounded after their sharp falls yesterday.

The Euro has been broadly neutral despite some rather bad German factory orders data showed a sharp fall in January by 2.7%, well below market expectations of a 0.6% rise.

The Pound is also treading water just above some key MA support levels with the 100-day MA and 55-day MA currently holding above recent range lows. A break below 1.5650 could well see significant sharp declines.

The Swiss franc continues to sneak up under the radar as it closes in on the floor set by the Swiss National Bank at 1.2000, as the SNB wrestles with more questions about the conduct of its senior bankers and their trading activities.

Oil prices have bounced back from yesterday’s lows as markets pause for breath after yesterday’s losses.

Gold and silver prices have stabilised near their recent lows as markets pause for breath ahead of tomorrow’s key event risk.

Copper prices have struggled to rally after yesterday’s falls as concerns over future demand continue to weigh on the upside. Australia’s disappointing GDP numbers overnight have fed into wider concerns about future demand after yesterday’s Brazil GDP numbers and China’s growth downgrade
Mar 1st

Market Wrap - 1st March

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
Falling bond yields in European credit markets have given a lift to equity markets in Europe as financial shares have benefitted from the LTRO effect.

Despite this easing of tensions on bond yields, economic data continues to reinforce the fact that EU leaders don’t have a growth and jobs policy to throw a stick at and makes the EU summit later today much more important than the normal talking shops that these events are famous for.

Eurozone unemployment jumped sharply in January to 10.7%, a record, while the December figure was revised up from 10.4% to 10.6%.

Manufacturing PMI’s remain sluggish and contractionary with the best of a bad bunch being Germany, coming in at 50.2 while Greece continues to implode with its PMI sliding to 37.7 in February.

Financials are being led higher by Man Group (EMG LN) after the hedge fund reported full year results. Banks are also higher with Barclays (BARC LN) leading the way. WPP (WPP LN) was also a standout performer after beating expectations on 2011 profit.

On the downside, Weir Group (WEIR LN) continues to slide weighed down by on-going issues with respect to its takeover of Australian mining company Ludowici, as well as a broker downgrade from Panmure Gordon.

U.S. markets opened higher today after yesterday’s falls as economic data continued to show signs of improvement. Weekly jobless claims continue to come in at the lower end of expectations, stuck around the 351k level. Personal income and spending data for January continues to show some flickers of activity, up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, though both were below expectations.

With the European manufacturing sector continuing to underperform particular attention markets were hoping that this afternoon’s ISM manufacturing data would continue its recent upward trend. The numbers were somewhat of a disappointment missing expectations at 52.4, below January’s 54.1. New orders and employment dropped and prices paid rose sharply suggesting that inflation is starting to become a problem while demand starts to drop away.

Given that we saw stocks drop sharply yesterday on speculation that improving U.S. data and Bernanke’s comments about inflation made QE3 less likely, this weaker ISM has sparked speculation that it may not be too far away at all.

In earnings news, grocer Kroger’s is set to report Q4 earnings of $0.49c a share. Also in the retail sector, Wal-Mart announced it was boosting its dividend by 9% to $1.59c a share.

The commodity currencies of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollar have remained fairly buoyant today after this morning’s Chinese manufacturing PMI suggested that the Chinese economy was slowly bouncing back from its recent weakness.

The pound has also managed to remain well bid after manufacturing data for February came in slightly below expectations, but still in expansion territory unlike its European counterparts.

The Euro has had a fairly negative bias most of the day after economic data showed that the European economy remains firmly in the doldrums, while unemployment continues to rise sharply, and PMI’s remain weak.

Greece PMI hit another record low of 37.7 in February as austerity continued to sap demand. Unemployment has continued to rise hitting record euro highs of 10.7%, driven largely by rises in Spain, Italy and Greece.

The U.S. dollar from being broadly positive for most of the day slid sharply in the afternoon after disappointing U.S. economic data invited speculation about the likelihood of further easing.

Brent oil prices have continued to defy gravity, pushing towards the highs of the day on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar as well as tempered expectations of further monetary stimulus.

Gold prices have recovered off their overnight lows after yesterday’s sharp fall below $1,700 pulled some buyers out of the woodwork. The recovery gained momentum after US ISM missed expectations and tempered expectations of a delay to further easing measures.

Copper prices caught a bid from the better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI data overnight.
Feb 21st

Market Wrap - 21st February

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
After weeks of waiting Greece has received its long awaited bailout in the early hours of this morning. However, the market response was underwhelming to say the least but not altogether surprising, once the detail is examined. The troika report, even on a baseline scenario, is not an encouraging read and the growth projections of the bailout plan seem a touch optimistic at best.

Given the way markets have front run this agreement in recent days, a pullback was the most probable outcome and we’ve seen that play out today, with a broadly softer tone overall. Financials and industrial stocks have led the declines with Lloyds (LLOY LN) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS LN) leading the banking sector lower.

Biggest faller today is Tullow Oil (TLW LN) after it announced that one of its wells in Sierra Leone would probably deliver less oil than originally hoped.

Basic resource stocks have been the main outperformers as copper prices rise while an upbeat note from Deutsche Bank raised its earnings forecasts for the sector with Vedanta Resources (VED LN) and Anglo American (AAL LN) leading the gainers. Car insurance company Admiral (ADM LN) also received a timely boost from Credit Suisse as it continues to recoup ground after the shock of its profits warning at the end of last year.

U.S. markets opened higher today after returning from the President’s day holiday having missed yesterday’s move higher.

Retailers have been in the news with a raft of earnings data set to test investor resolve with the Dow near to the 13,000 level. Wal-Mart stores saw its Q4 profits fall 15% as it tried to boost sales in the face of steep competition. On the other hand, Home Depot saw profits rise 32% as sales jumped as home owners splashed the cash on home improvements instead of moving. Department store Macy’s reported an increase in sales in the fourth quarter with earnings coming in at $1.74c a share, above expectations of $1.65c.

The U.S. dollar after several days of losses has bounced back in the wake of this morning’s decision to ratify the latest bailout deal. The biggest faller has been the Australian dollar after the RBA minutes left the door open to further rate cuts after this month’s surprise decision to keep rates on hold. It was closely tracked lower by the New Zealand dollar after the RBNZ saw inflation expectations come in lower for the next two years at 2.5%, down from the previous 2.8%.

The Euro has found downside somewhat limited, though it continues to make gains above the 1.3300 handle, despite the latest approval of the Greece bailout.

The Pound has had a negative day despite the latest public finance figures for January, historically a surplus month came in with a much higher repayment than expected at £10.8bn, suggesting that the Chancellor will come in well below his borrowing target for 2011.

Gold and silver prices have had an altogether firmer tone today on the back of this morning’s Greek deal, as investors piled into the safe haven qualities of the precious metals.

Brent oil prices have stabilised near their 9 month highs after hitting levels above $121 yesterday, slipping briefly below $120, as the geopolitical issues start to get priced in to an extent, while OPEC stands ready to increase production to deal with any pinches in the supply chain. U.S. Crude prices continue to show positive momentum.

Copper prices look set to post their first consecutive two day gain since the 9th February as prices get a bid from this morning’s bailout agreement.
Feb 13th

Market Wrap - 13th February

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
European markets have reacted positively to the weekend of political developments that unfolded in Athens yesterday, though they have slipped back from their intraday highs. The passing of the austerity budget by Greek politicians now effectively shifts market focus and responsibility across to European finance ministers and their Wednesday meeting.

The private sector involvement also needs to be ratified in order that the necessary paper work is in place for next month’s 20 March deadline and €14.5bn bond redemption, though there has been some talk that this afternoon of some sticking points that have yet to be ironed out.

Many hurdles remain, not least written confirmation that Greek politicians won’t try and unpick the deal after an April election, but markets seem to think that Europe’s finance ministers may well blink and agree to the release of funds to avoid an imminent default.

Rising metal prices have seen mining stocks push higher led by Anglo American (AAL LN), despite some disappointing results from its platinum division. Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO LN) is also posting good gains.

Banking stocks, led by Lloyds (LLOY LN) have also pushed higher despite there being downgraded by Nomura on the back of the gains seen since the beginning of this year.

Mobile telecoms giant Vodafone (VOD LN) is also in the news on speculation that it could be interested in Cable and Wireless Worldwide (CWW LN) after its 16% share price fall on Friday. 

U.S. markets have picked up on the gains seen in Europe today opening higher as optimism rises that Greece will get its money for its bond redemption in March. Apple shares have captured the positive tone today pushing above the psychologically $500 mark for the first time ever, having hit $400 in July last year, making the shares 20% higher in the space of 7 months.

Bank of America is the stand out gainer on the Dow, closely followed by Alcoa, as banks ride the more positive sentiment higher.

The U.S. dollar has had a disappointing day today, giving up ground on the back of a rebound in risk appetite as investors get bolder in buying back into riskier assets. Commodity currencies have been the main gainers with the New Zealand and Australian dollar both rising sharply.

The Euro rose sharply after the weekend ratification of the latest raft of austerity measures; however it has struggled once again near to the 1.3300 level and has subsequently slipped back as talk that the Greek PSI deal has hit yet another snag. The pound has underperformed somewhat despite a CBI report which suggested that the UK would avoid a double dip recession in the first quarter of 2012.

Oil prices have jumped sharply today on the back of a firmer tone in equities but the old geopolitical risk premium has also helped buoy prices after reports of rising tension between Israel and Iran, after car bomb attacks on Israeli targets in India and Georgia while reports that Iran is set to announce a major nuclear breakthrough has also raised the stakes in the region. The Brent/WTI risk premium has moved back to $18, reflecting the rising tensions.

Copper prices are $2 higher from Friday’s close reflecting greater optimism on the back of the rise in equity markets.

Gold prices are finding upward progress somewhat limited, but are still holding above their 144 day MA, at $1,706, despite the U.S. dollar getting clobbered across the board.
Feb 9th

Market Wrap - 9th February

By Michael Hewson CMC Markets
Today, European markets saw a bullish bias in early trade and continued the move upwards on news that Greece had reached a deal over new austerity measures. Given that the deal has yet to be signed off in Greek parliament by the weekend, there is still no guarantee that the implementation of said agreement is a fait accompli. Time will tell if the market can retain its buoyancy.

The ECB kept rates on hold as expected and the implication from the subsequent press conference was that it is highly unlikely that we’ll see any change next month, either. Given that the next LTRO will take place at the end of February, it could well be May before we see any rate moves.

Natural gas company BG Group (BG. LN) led from the front, following strong earnings and an upbeat outlook; buying was supported by a buy recommendation from Deutsche Bank. Evraz Plc was the worst performer as it continued its decline following yesterday’s broker downgrade.

In the UK, industrial and manufacturing numbers both surprised to the upside growing 0.5% on the month against an expectation of 0.2% and 1.0% against a forecast of 0.3% respectively.

The announcement by the Bank of England of an additional stimulus of €50bn was no doubt taken in context against these positive figures and the slackening pace of expansion in the export sector. Interest rates remained at 0.5%.

U.S. Markets took solace in European news and saw the S&P 500 hit a seven month high. Initial jobless claims also saw a surprising drop of 15,000, which also helped put investor sentiment on a positive footing. Corporate wise, PepsiCo reported earnings saw a 4% increase in net income, with revenues up 11% to $20.16bn. While the results were better than expected, the outlook disappointed.

Pro risk appetite has propelled the New Zealand dollar to the top of the currency board today with the safe havens Japanese yen and U.S. dollar amongst the worst performers as a consequence. The Euro rose to a two month high against the dollar but has since pared its gains. Sterling also gained early on but has retraced somewhat following the confirmation of further bond purchasing by the BOE.

Copper has succeeded in hitting 6 month highs on the back of the weaker dollar and better fundamentals from the US.

Oil has taken its cues from the equity markets rising on the prospects for improved demand.

Gold and Silver have consolidated, with gains capped as a result of renewed interest in risker asset classes.
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